In the livestock market of El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, the ribs of cows show through their dusty hides. A trader there told Reuters that at this time of year the cattle are usually fat and everyone makes a profit; this year, after a meagre rainy season, they have grown thin. That small scene captures a large shift. Sudan’s war, now in its fourth year, has collided with the worst drought in decades.<\/p>\n
Rainfall in July to September 2026, the peak of the rainy season, was the lowest in more than three decades across the country, according to US Geological Survey data cited by Reuters. In North Darfur it was the lowest since 1984, the year famine struck Sudan and Ethiopia. My argument is that the coming months, through the winter cropping season and beyond, are the last window to prevent a wider famine, and that closing it requires three things at once: shielding farms and markets from the war, funding farmers as seriously as food aid, and opening routes for assistance on both sides of the front lines.<\/p>\n
On 12 October 2026 the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) issued an alert warning that an El Ni\u00f1o-induced drought affecting roughly half the country is compounding the effects of conflict and displacement, reducing food availability and driving up prices. Poor vegetation growth affects nearly two-thirds of cropland in North Darfur and about half in South Darfur, West Kordofan and South Kordofan, and West Kordofan is going through one of its worst droughts since 2004, Al Jazeera reported.<\/p>\n
The alert also recorded worsening acute malnutrition. In Nyala, the share of children reaching nutrition services who were admitted for severe acute malnutrition doubled from about 5 to 11 per cent between January and August, and two displacement camps in South Darfur recorded global acute malnutrition above the famine threshold. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) said on 13 October that child mortality in the surveyed camps had reached emergency levels, and that more than 300,000 people had been displaced in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan since October.<\/p>\n
On 23 October a joint ministerial statement by 32 signatories, including the European Commission, warned that some 19.5 million people, 41 per cent of the population, face high levels of acute food insecurity, 5 million of them at emergency levels. Severe acute malnutrition among children could exceed the projected 825,000 cases, and the number of food-insecure areas, first assessed at 14, is expected to double.<\/p>\n
The drought is hitting the rain-fed belt that grows most of Sudan’s food. A farmer near Um Ruwaba estimated that about 40 per cent of the land there would yield no harvest, and a large-scale farmer in Gedaref told Reuters he expected a quarter of last year’s crop even if more rain came. Gedaref has been a breadbasket throughout the war because it escaped the fighting; this year the drought reached it.<\/p>\n
In September, Radio Dabanga reported FAO data showing severe drought on up to 40 per cent of cultivated land in Sennar and 70 per cent in Gedaref, with sorghum prices up 65 per cent and millet up 42 per cent in most monitored markets between January and June. Sudan’s 2025 cereal output was about 5.2 million tonnes, 22 per cent below 2024, and the country needs to import some 2.8 million tonnes of cereals this year, mostly wheat. In East Darfur, local groups said some farmers had already been forced to eat into their seed stocks, putting next season’s planting at risk.<\/p>\n
For a household that has lost its harvest, these numbers mean entering the market as a buyer just as prices climb, the currency weakens and livestock lose value. Drought becomes a crisis of purchasing power, and that crisis becomes a new wave of displacement.<\/p>\n
According to Reuters, as of 17 October the World Food Programme had $276 million for its Sudan operation, less than half of last year’s budget, and needed an extra $134 million to respond to drought-driven hunger. WFP is focusing on the 5 million people in greatest need, says it cannot reach all of them, and has cut rations for those it does reach. Its Sudan head of programme told Reuters that WFP expects an additional 350,000 people to face severe hunger by the end of 2026, rising to 1.2 million more by August 2027.<\/p>\n
In Tawila, Darfur, home to about 700,000 displaced people, WFP’s acting executive director Carl Skau said rations had been halved even as some 9,000 new arrivals came between early September and mid-October. The WHO warned on 9 October of severe shortages of food, water and health care there, with only 23 per cent of its 2026 Sudan appeal funded. Skau called the simultaneous decline of aid and harvests “a recipe for disaster”.<\/p>\n
Views on the scale of the threat differ. Sudan’s Agriculture Minister Esmat Qureshi told a news conference in Khartoum on 8 October that this year’s harvest would be lower, though “not significantly less” than last year’s, Reuters reported. The IRC, by contrast, expects harvests across Sudan to be near record-poor, and Reuters notes that the number of people in severe hunger had been expected to fall with the November and December harvest, while the drought is now expected to push it up.<\/p>\n
The head of the RSF’s humanitarian aid authority, Abdelrahman Ismail, told Reuters it had worked to coordinate and call for an early response and could do more with the necessary resources and capacity. Humanitarian agencies have accused both government forces and the RSF of blocking or hindering aid; both deny it. Famine scholar Alex de Waal told Reuters the situation is in most respects much worse than in the 1980s because of the conflict, and that aid budgets have since been cut back.<\/p>\n
These divergent accounts call for rapid, independent field assessments. Farmers in Abu Jubeiha told Radio Dabanga that no official, international or local body had yet surveyed crop losses there. Sound decisions need numbers that all sides accept.<\/p>\n
The joint ministerial statement sets out concrete asks of the parties: authorise humanitarian operations through all crossline and cross-border routes, including air access into Darfur; ease visas, permits and the fees and procedures that slow aid; refrain from strikes on civilian infrastructure, including agriculture and food systems; and strengthen civil-military coordination to keep aid workers safe. It also urges donors to scale up funding, support the winter cropping season and strengthen locally led responses. I would add three priorities:<\/p>\n
In 1984 harvests failed, livestock died and people were forced to migrate, a farmer in Um Ruwaba recalled to Reuters. The same drought has now returned to land exhausted by war, alongside halved rations and cut roads. Famine can be prevented when three things come together: early warning, timely funding and safe access. The warning has been issued. Donors now need to fund, and both warring parties need to open the way, so that history does not record that Sudanese people were warned of hunger in October and then left to face it.<\/p>\n
Sudan’s worst rainy season in decades has collided with a war in its fourth year. The coming months are the last window to prevent a wider famine, and that needs protected farms and markets, funded farmers and open aid routes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-71","ay_column","type-ay_column","status-publish","hentry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t